After another eventful trade deadline, San Diego Padres General Manager AJ Preller has yet again emptied the farm system to cash in on proven major league talent. While the system is now ranked in the bottom quarter of the league, the San Diego minor league teams are not without promising talent yet to hit the mainstream. Setting aside consensus top 50 prospects C Ethan Salas and SS Leodalis De Vries, a deeper dive into the Friars’ young crop of talent shows a slew of promising ballplayers.
RHP, Francis Pena, El Paso Chihuahuas, AAA
An international signing out of the baseball-rich Dominican Republic in January 2022, right-hander Francis Pena has been one of the most impressive and effective arms in the Padres minor league system in 2024. He boasts a highly effective 2.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 59.0 IP across high A, double A, and triple A ball. Pena’s swift rise through the minor leagues is in part due to his 70 grade fastball – a sinker ball that sits at 97 mph – paired with an upper 80s slider that Statcast incorrectly labels a cutter (although he can change his fastball grip to morph his sinker into more of a cutting fastball).
In recent outings, Pena has touched 100 mph on his fastball and 92 mph on his curve, a significant development in his velocity. While he has not relied heavily on the strikeout (8.69 K/9 in 2024), opponents struggled to barrel up his pitches, leading to an opponent slugging percentage of just .290 this season. Currently ranked as the Padres #13 overall prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, Pena looks to have a shot to break into the major leagues sometime late next year.
RHP, Isaiah Lowe, Fort Wayne TinCaps, A+
Padres’ #8 prospect Isaiah Lowe was recently promoted from low A Lake Elsinore to Fort Wayne after performing to the tune of a 3.00 ERA with 89 K in 72.0 IP, and has largely continued his success with the TinCaps. Although his strikeout rate is down from 29.7% in low A to 14.9% in a smaller sample size at high A, this can likely be attributed to adjusting to the new level of competition.
His fastball-slider combination has fared well so far for him, with his four-seamer sitting mid 90s. Lowe has shown the ability to go multiple innings, with his manager asking for more than three outs in all but one of his outings in 2024. His K/BB% at high A (1.29) leaves some to be desired so far, but a regression to the mean (Lowe posted K/BB rates of 4.25 in 2023 and 3.07 in 2024 at low A) would suggest that number would find level somewhere in the high 2s. If Lowe can fine tune his command a bit in Fort Wayne (11.5% BB rate), his K% can be expected to regress to the mean as well.
RHP, Sean Reynolds, El Paso Chihuahuas, AAA
Reynolds has thrown 11.0 IP in his short time on the Padres major league roster (34 days over two stints) and is currently back in El Paso awaiting his next call-up after being optioned on August 31. However, the 6 foot 8 inch, 250 pound flamethrower has made his presence known despite his limited runs in a crowded San Diego bullpen.
Reynolds has struck out 21 batters in his 11.0 IP, including his last outing in Tampa Bay where he fanned 5 Rays in 1.2 IP. Pair that with a 1.00 FIP and a fastball with 91st percentile velocity according to Baseball Savant, and suddenly you have a flamethrower that is flashing intriguing stuff at the big league level. His aforementioned fastball, which has topped out at 100 mph, is complemented by a slider that sits squarely above league average in velocity, and a changeup he has sprinkled in at a 5.3% clip.
Overall, Fangraphs gives Reynolds a 129 stuff+ rating, with his slider rated as his most effective pitch (146 stuff+, .096 xBA, .109 xSLG) and his fastball grading out highly as well (122 stuff+, .134 xBA).
Reynolds utilizes the magnus effect to compel the spin he puts on the ball to influence the break of his four seam fastball, something he has been able to do quite efficiently. A 98% effective spin rate on his fastball has led to 9.3 inches of average horizontal break- a number that is 45% above average. The 91st percentile velocity and above average break of this pitch culminates in a 32.1% putaway%, meaning about a third of the time Reynolds has gone to his fastball in 2 strike counts, he’s struck the batter out.
Although he is buried behind a slew of proven major league relievers, the expected departure of Tanner Scott after the season could provide an opportunity for the right-hander to break into a more defined role in 2025.
3B/SS/2B, Rosman Verdugo, Fort Wayne TinCaps, A+
At just 19 years of age, Verdugo will be the youngest player mentioned in this article, and for good reason. Recently earning a promotion from low A Lake Elsinore to high A Fort Wayne, Verdugo has shown flashes of the power/speed combination (20 HR/25 SB in his minor league career) that is so coveted in the majors today. Verdugo was an effective bat in low A in 2024, posting a .250/.363/.407 slash line with 9 HRs and 6 SB through 81 games. A 109 wRC+ is good, not great, but that number can be expected to come up a bit as he fills out his frame and begins to hit for more power. A .338 BABIP shows he did have a considerable amount of luck on his batted balls in Lake Elsinore, but his 14.5% walk rate and .250 batting average suggest his .363 OBP is not simply the result of lucky breaks.
The young infielder has struggled with swing and miss, but his patience at the plate in low A, paired with his simple swing, have allowed him to reach base at a desirable clip for a young player. Verdugo profiles best at 2B, as he’s struggled to play a consistent shortstop (21 errors in 90 starts in 2023). The 19-year-old has struggled since his promotion to high A earlier this year, with just a .561 OPS in 25 games, with an uptick in velocity potentially being the culprit.
Verdugo’s flyball percentage is on par with his numbers from Lake Elsinore (45.6% in LE, 45.3% in FW), his infield fly ball rate is down 7.0%, and he is pulling the ball at a comparable rate to his time with the Storm, but his BABIP has dropped from .338 to .266. This has resulted in a .100 point drop in wOBA. Whether this is the result of a smaller sample size is yet to be determined.
Despite a rough start in Fort Wayne, Verdugo had similar struggles when aggressively promoted from rookie ball to Lake Elsinore in 2023, with his OPS dropping .166 points and his wRC+ dropping to 78 before he adjusted. Verdugo will have plenty of time to develop due to his age and organizational depth, with his speed and raw power grades providing something to keep an eye on.
RHP, Tyson Neighbors, Lake Elsinore, A-
Neighbors was drafted in the 4th round, 118th overall in July after completing his junior year at Kansas State. Profiling as a relief pitcher, Neighbors was rated as the top bullpen prospect in the draft. The 6 foot 2 inch, 220 pound right-hander possesses a 70-grade slider that has touched the low 90s, a 65-grade fastball that tops out at 99 with vertical break and a 60-grade curve.
Neighbors was highly effective throughout his sophomore season in 2023, posting a 1.85 ERA in 48.2 IP with a whopping 86 strikeouts. His ERA took a hit in 2023, potentially due to an oblique injury he dealt with that forced him to miss a month, but he had no trouble sustaining his absurd K%.
The junior closer struck out 61 in 38.2 IP. His strikeout to walk ratio took a hit as well as his ERA, dropping from an outstanding 5.38 in 2023 to 3.21 in 2024. The combination of Neighbors’ apparent readiness for big league opportunities, his tendency to thrive in high pressure situations, and the Padres’ tendency to aggressively promote prospects may mean the 2024 draft pick spends just a year in the minor leagues.
Neighbors was assigned to the Padres’ Arizona Complex League team on August 5 and promoted to low A Lake Elsinore on August 27. The 2024 draft pick has pitched 4.2 innings with 9 Ks in four appearances for the Storm. The right-hander has held opponents scoreless in three of his four outings, logging multiple strikeouts every time he’s toed the rubber. Look for Neighbors to break into the Majors sooner rather than later.
