As I write this, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are separated by only 2.5 games, with 14 games left for the Padres and 15 left for the Dodgers. That’s why the lead is 2.5 games instead of two. The divisional race may come down to the wire, and both teams are struggling at the worst time possible.
In the last 10 games, each club is 4-6. Neither team looks as dominant as they did at this point last year. In 2024, the Dodgers and Padres were commonly regarded as the two best teams in the National League. This year, that’s far from the case.
There are two main areas in which the Pads need to improve if they hope to put themselves in a position where they can make a deep playoff run: offense and starting pitching. On the season, the Padres rank 19th of 30 in on-base plus slugging (OPS), a stat meant to convey how productive a team or player is as a whole. It combines on-base percentage and slugging percentage to evaluate how effective a player is in getting on base and providing power. The Dodgers, on the other hand, rank third in all of baseball in OPS.
Even worse, the Padres’ offense has dipped in September. Since the start of the month, the Friars have averaged merely 3.55 runs per game, down from their average of 4.20 on the season, which already places them 25th out of 30 teams. Neither Manny Machado nor Fernando Tatis Jr. has a batting average over .200 since the start of the month. For the Pads to look like the force they were in ‘24, those two will need to get hot and fast.
The other struggle has been piecing the starting rotation together. Michael King has been solid since his return from the injured list, and Nick Pivetta has been the most consistent starter for San Diego throughout the season. Meanwhile, Dylan Cease, who has two top-five Cy Young Award finishes in the last four seasons, is having his worst full season to date, posting a 4.71 earned run average (ERA) with a record of 7-11.
Yu Darvish, though he’s only pitched in 12 games due to injury, has an ERA of 5.65 and hasn’t looked like the Darvish of seasons past. JP Sears and Randy Vasquez haven’t been anything to write home about. The rotation’s got potential, but they have to maximize it as October draws near.
One thing the Pads can rest their hat on is a dominant bullpen. They’ve got a murderer’s row of Jeremiah Estrada, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon and Robert Suarez that’s propelled them to have the best bullpen ERA in all of baseball on the season. The loss of Jason Adam, another stellar bullpen arm, could be costly, but San Diego’s bullpen will be one of, if not the best, heading into October.
On the flip side, the Dodgers’ most glaring issue the entire season has been the bullpen. Over the offseason, L.A. signed lefty Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72 million contract, making him the third-highest paid reliever in the sport. They re-signed Blake Treinen to a two-year contract. They snagged veteran Kirby Yates to a one-year deal. Much of the offseason was focused on bolstering the bullpen. To no avail.
Scott, who became one of the best lefty bullpen arms in the sport over the past few seasons, has been a shell of his former self. His ERA is above 5.00, and he’s tied for the league lead in blown saves at nine. Treinen’s ERA ballooned from 1.93 last season to 3.86 this year. Yates has struggled with the long ball. As a unit, the Dodgers’ pen is 19th in ERA and 23rd in batting average against.
These two teams aren’t the juggernauts of last year. Who can fix their issues first? That’ll determine who has the deeper run in October.
Ava Bailey-Klugh 
Makenna Richardson