It’s here; the most wonderful time of the year, postseason baseball. As per usual, this season’s playoff picture didn’t shape up the way it was expected to. The Atlanta Braves were plagued with the injury bug, the Detroit Tigers snuck their way in by winning nine of their last ten games and the AL West surprisingly only had one team representing the division in October, the Houston Astros. I’m going to attempt (and likely fail) to predict how October is going to shake out, and who will be raising the Commissioner’s Trophy later this fall.
The Wild Card round is already wrapped up, and as expected, we’ve already seen a few shocking upsets. The No. 6 seed Detroit Tigers went into Houston and swept the veteran Astros (No. 3 seed), moving on to face the No. 2 seed Cleveland Guardians. The No. 5 seed Kansas City Royals swept the talented No. 4 seed Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards to advance and play the No. 1 seed New York Yankees.
In the National League, the No. 4 seed San Diego Padres swept the No. 5 seed Atlanta Braves, now tasked with a matchup against the No. 1 seed Los Angeles Dodgers. The No. 6 seed Mets beat the No. 3 seed Milwaukee and will have to face the No. 2 seed Philadelphia Phillies.
In the Phillies-Mets divisional matchup, I have Philly moving on to the league championship round.
The Phillies have a three-headed monster at the top of their rotation in Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sanchez (four-headed monster if their early season ace Ranger Suarez can get into a rhythm again). And their lineup is star-studded, with a lot of playoff experience. I can’t bet against a rotation like that paired with a lineup that features Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber.
As much as it pains me to do this as a Dodgers fan, I’ve got the Padres beating LA to move on. I like the Dodgers’ lineup more than the Pads, but the pitching concerns me. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has looked really good in certain spots since returning from injury, but he’s been inconsistent and hasn’t pitched more than five innings in an appearance since June, before his injured list stint. Jack Flaherty’s been solid, but the inconsistency of Walker Buehler and inexperience of Landon Knack worries me. San Diego’s got a solid three starters in Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish. Martín Perez was really solid down the stretch as well. I really hope I’m wrong, but I’ve got San Diego moving on.
On the AL side, I’ve got the Yankees beating the Royals and the Tigers taking down the Guardians.
It’s a chalk prediction but I can’t bet against the Yankees’ talent. Though the Royals are a fun storyline, I think they’re still a year or two away. They’ve got a nice core of young talent, centered around star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., that could set them up for success in the future. But they lost 106 games last season and their core doesn’t have playoff experience. And the Yankees have Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, two of the three best hitters in the league, as well as a rotation that included Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and breakout star Luis Gil. Pair that with a solid bullpen, it’s a recipe for success.
I’ve got the Tigers continuing their Cinderella run and beating the Cleveland Guardians. We’ve seen this before; a lower-seeded team gets hot toward the end of the season and makes a deep run into the postseason. Nobody’s hotter than Detroit is right now. Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher on the planet; their pitching staff finished 4th in ERA and their bullpen is one of the best in the league. They’re hot at the right time and their pitching is rock solid. That’s a great combination, and enough to get them to the American League Championship Series (ALCS).
The two teams I have in the World Series are the Phillies and Yankees. The Yankees have been teetering on the edge for a while now, but this is the year they get to the World Series. The recipe is simple. They’ve got one of the better bullpens in the league, a rotation with Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil and Carlos Rodon and a lineup with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, two of the top three hitters in baseball. Their starting pitching is significantly better than Cleveland and is enough to squeak by them in the ALCS.
Though San Diego is really scary, I trust Philly more. They’ve been the best team in the league in a lot of people’s minds and have gotten a whiff of the Commissioner’s Trophy, losing to Houston in 2022. I think they’ve got a bad taste in their mouth from being bounced early and are out for blood; and they have established hitters and pitchers who’ve had immense success in the postseason.
The 2024 World Series champion will be the Philadelphia Phillies. I believe they have the biggest home field advantage and might have the best 1-2 punch in Wheeler and Nola. Soto and Judge are better than anyone in Philly’s lineup but from top to bottom, Philadelphia’s got more consistency than New York. Bryce Harper will finally get his ring.
Luke Mallery